Coronavirus vs. forecasts for pay TV market in Poland

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In the context of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus epidemic, the entertainment industry is counting on losses. But what does this mean for pay TV and VOD providers such as Netflix? Will they gain from the potentially larger number of consumers who will be forced to stay at home?

Revision of macroeconomic forecasts

The latest macroeconomic forecasts for Poland assume that GDP may fall to well below 2% annually. The rebound is expected only in Q4, and a return to the pre-Coronavirus projection will be possible in 2021.

In the case of the technology sector, the main concern is to disrupt the equipment supply chain, including servers manufactured in the Far East. There may also be problems with the supply of components, consumer electronics and end-user equipment.

Disney once again postpones debut of VOD platform in Poland

In the short term, the coronavirus has severely disrupted a number of events, conferences and mass events, including those in the TMT industry. On March 5th Disney+ planned a ceremonial launch of its VoD platform on the European market. On this occasion, a two-day conference was to be held in London. However, it was cancelled for fear of an epidemiological threat.

Moreover, the planned debut of the Disney+ VOD platform in Poland is postponed once again. This time the date is not even specified. The fact is that after the initial announcement, on 9 March Disney finally removed Poland from the countries where Disney+ service is to appear. The official announcement states that on 24 March 2020 the service will debut in the UK and Ireland, France, Germany, Austria and Switzerland. In summer it will appear in Belgium, Portugal and Scandinavian countries.

VOD market in Poland to gain

It is not entirely clear whether the reduction of Disney+ investment plans is related to the risk of COVID-19 and the reduction of the risk of expanding into too many markets at the same time in a highly probable recession in the US market. Perhaps the reason for abandoning a debut on the Polish market is strong local competition or relatively higher KPIs on piracy.

However, the key question is to what extent the fact of having to stay at home by a larger number of consumers than usual will positively impact the Polish pay-TV and VOD market. Although the impact of this factor on the market may be short-term, a scenario of better performance of pay-TV providers and VOD platforms is likely. But will every provider gain as much and how will the balance of power change compared to last year?

PMR has just commenced working on the latest edition of its flagship pay TV report. Forecasts of market development will certainly take all the new factors into account. The upcoming PMR B2C consumer research will also provide new material and insights.