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According to the Oxford Economics report, Huawei’s exclusion from the European market may result in losses totalling up to EUR 40 billion, which will result in a significant slowdown in economic growth, including in Poland.
Poland may lose EUR 2.2 billion
In the case of Poland, the exclusion of such an important player as Huawei will restrict competition on the market and delay many investments, including those related to the implementation of 5G technology. Losses may reach about € 120 million per year over the next 15 years, which means a total loss of € 2.2 billion until 2035.
Experts from the Oxford School of Economics have analysed how much GDP will fall by 2035 in individual European countries. Losses range from €13 million in Iceland to €7.3 billion in France, and European GDP as a whole will fall by €40 billion by 2035.
Not just financial losses
Huawei’s lack of investment in the European market will not only cause financial losses, but also delays related to 5G network access. According to the worst-case scenario of Oxford Economics, 3.3 million people (9% of the Polish population) may lose the opportunity to access the benefits of the 5G network before 2023. The consequences of Huawei’s exclusion will also be felt strongly by businesses. Higher connection speeds achieved thanks to 5G may have been the key to improving productivity levels, especially in the context of the country’s recovery from the financial crisis caused by the pandemic.
At the end of June 2020. the US officially recognised Huawei and ZTE as entities that pose a threat to national security. The United States has been pressing its allies for more than a year to completely exclude Huawei and ZTE from implementing the 5G network. At the same time they drew attention to national security considerations and the risks associated with the use of Chinese intelligence equipment.